​​This article is part of the Guardian’s Euro 2016 Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for France. theguardian.com is running previews from three countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 10 June.

Fatih Terim has mainly deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation but he has experimented at times with a 4-4-1-1 and 4-3-3. “The Emperor” has moved on from most of the old guard with a few notable exceptions such as Arda Turan, Selcuk Inan, Gokhan Gonul and Mehmet Topal.

Turkey could not have got their Euro 2016 qualifiers off to a worse start. Terim’s team were joint bottom, level with Kazakhstan, three games into their qualifying group. The team were disjointed, lacked cohesion and, most surprising of all for a team coached by Terim, they lacked spirit. Despite almost becoming public enemy No1, Terim persisted in promising things would improve. And they did drastically.

In their final three games Turkey beat Holland 3-0 and then took care of business against Czech Republic in Prague, winning 2-0, but Terim’s side still needed to win against Iceland and hope the Czechs drew with or beat the Dutch. The Czechs did their part with a 3-2 win but Turkey were drawing 0-0 at home to Iceland until the 90th minute when the captain, Inan, scored a last-gasp free-kick to book a place at Euro 2016.

The team have started to gel and Terim has a rough idea of his strongest side. The two central midfielders are likely to be the Galatasaray captain, Inan, and the 20-year-old Fenerbahce rising star Ozan Tufan. Inan has an impressive passing range and the ability to play as a deep-lying playmaker. Tufan is an assiduous and dynamic midfielder. Terim has the option of playing Topal in a three-man midfield but seems intent on playing him as a centre-back.

Having to play a defensive midfielder in defence highlights one of Terim’s biggest problems. He will not have the Bayer Leverkusen defender Omer Toprak available, which has created a headache. Topal and the Bursaspor defender Serdar Aziz seem the most likely pairing but the experienced Galatasaray stalwart Hakan Balta is also in with a chance.

Elsewhere in defence Terim has plenty of options. Internazionale’s Caner Erkin will be the first-choice left-back but Hasan Ali Kaldirim will be vying for a spot. On the right Gonul and Besiktas’s Ismail Koybasi will compete for a place.

It is in attacking midfield that Terim really is spoilt for choice. Turan will almost certainly be first choice on the right. The Bayer Leverkusen star Hakan Calhanoglu could be forced to play on the left with arguably the Super Lig player of the season, Oguzhan Ozyakup of Besiktas, in a central attacking midfield role. The in-form Mainz midfielder Yunus Malli will be in the mix and Fenerbahce’s Volkan Sen and Nordsjaelland’s Emre Mor will provide additional depth.

There has been talk of Terim not playing a striker and using Malli, Turan or Calhanoglu up front as a false nine. Considering the lack of striking options it is not difficult to see the logic. The striker Cenk Tosun has broken into the Besiktas team recently but he played only as second fiddle to Mario Gómez. Mevlut Erdinc has been left out of the squad and Burak Yilmaz is struggling with an injury problem picked up playing for Beijing Guoan.

Terim controversially left the Fenerbahce goalkeeper Volkan Demirel out of the squad. While Demirel is undoubtedly more experienced than Volkan Babacan the coach decided Demirel’s presence was not good for harmony.

The emphasis of Terim’s style is fast passing, possession-based technical football. Turkey have the quality in midfield to keep hold of the ball and while they are a little toothless up front Calhanoglu, Ozyakup and Turan are capable of creating magic.

Terim has managed to find balance in an unbalanced team but any injuries to the centre-backs or forwards will prove a major headache. The array of talent in midfield could just be enough to paper over the cracks.

Probable starting XI

Which player will take everyone by surprise at Euro 2016?

Arsenal youth football aficionados may remember Oguzhan Ozyakup. The former Holland Under-21 captain, who switched allegiance to Turkey, joined Besiktas from Arsenal for €500,000 in 2012. The 23-year-old has established himself as one of the brightest talents in Turkish football and played a key role in Besiktas winning the league title this season, pulling the strings in midfield. Ozyakup is capable of playing centrally and in an attacking role. He contributed 10 goals and eight assists for the Black Eagles and stunned his country of birth, Holland, scoring in the 3-0 victory over the Oranje. Ozyakup has started all of Turkey’s past eight games and is likely to keep his place in midfield.

Which player could be a disappointment?

Terim made a huge call in dropping Demirel and giving Babacan the nod. Taking the Basaksehir goalkeeper ahead of the more experienced Demirel is a risk and if he makes any mistakes it could all backfire for Terim.

What is the realistic aim for Turkey and why?

Due to the nature of their qualification Turkey are under no public pressure. Getting to the tournament was an unexpected achievement but Terim has built a siege mentality in the team and the last time he got Turkey to the European Championship, in 2008, they reached the semi-finals. The Crescent Stars have done exceptionally well in the previous two major tournaments for which they qualified – finishing third at the 2002 World Cup, and reaching the last four of Euro 2008 – and could be dark horses. Turkey could progress as far as the semi-finals again. Terim has installed his never-say-die attitude and this side have a lot more quality than the squad he took to this championship eight years ago.

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